Managerial decisions and adaptation strategy of Riga Aeronautical Institute in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world

Konstantīns Savenkovs; Małgorzata  Sztorc

doi:10.55225/pel.666

Authors

Konstantīns Savenkovs Riga Aeronautical Institute, Riga, Latvia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5076-9569
Małgorzata Sztorc Kielce University of Technology, Kielce, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0881-0844

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55225/pel.666

Keywords:

RAI, groupthink, bottlenecks, garbage can model, uncertainty, VUCA world, rationality, flexible governance

Abstract

Managerial decision-making in higher education institutions today occurs within the context of a VUCA environment—characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—which shapes a unique framework for modern organizational and sociocultural realities. This article presents a case analysis of the Riga Aeronautical Institute (RAI), a private university in Latvia, focusing on the impact of the external environment and the development of an adaptive management strategy. Importantly, this case is not an isolated problem of a specific institution but serves as a model scenario illustrating systemic challenges faced by universities in a VUCA world, such as blurred internal regulations, a lack of sustainable procedures, and a high degree of external uncertainty (Bennett & Lemoine, 2014). A mixed-methods approach was used to obtain a comprehensive and objective view of the current external environment and to identify key challenges and opportunities for institutional adaptation.

The analysis is grounded in the concept of bounded rationality, the “garbage can model,” approaches to power and influence distribution, and behavioral economics with a focus on risk aversion. Key managerial bottlenecks and problems were identified, including unclear lines of authority among stakeholders, exclusion of certain actors from the decision-making process, limited experience in non-standard situations, and ambiguous organizational procedures.

The study employed a mixed-methods methodology, including expert evaluations from seven members of RAI’s management team and content analysis of external factors—demographic, economic, regulatory, and global educational trends. The results indicate a moderately high level of uncertainty and ambiguity, underscoring the need for flexible governance models.

The article proposes a set of strategies for reducing managerial uncertainty and improving decision quality: problem decomposition, application of complex situation analysis techniques, increased stakeholder engagement, management of information flows, and prevention of groupthink. This study contributes to the development of management theory and practice under VUCA conditions by offering tools to build mature adaptation strategies for the Latvian higher education sector.

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